STATE AND PROSPECTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE'S BUILDING INDUSTRY IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS CAUSED BY THE FULL-SCALE AGGRESSION OF THE RUSSIA, FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF ECONOMIC CYCLICITY

Abstract

The article is dedicated to examining the specific manifestations of economic cyclicality in Ukraine's building materials industry under martial law conditions. The analysis reveals that the full-scale war has led to the destruction of approximately 20% of enterprises, while others have experienced significant declines in production volumes, market access, raw material sources, and human resources. The features of war-induced economic crises are compared with cyclical overproduction crises, showing that military actions immediately push the economy into a recession phase. However, recovery may commence even before the end of hostilities due to the economy reaching the trough of the economic cycle.
The article explores various approaches to defining and understanding the concept of "economic crisis," highlighting the importance of identifying its causes and characteristics. Key factors influencing the transition between different phases of economic cycles—recession, depression, recovery, and expansion—are identified. It is noted that the moments of phase transition are critical to economic development, as they represent the shift from quantitative changes in one phase to qualitative changes in the next.
The dynamics of real estate prices are analyzed as one of the key indicators signaling the onset of the recovery phase. Additionally, the article formulates the components of a development strategy for Ukraine’s construction sector during the recovery period, taking into account the consequences of the war. These components include the localization of building materials production, improving housing comfort, ensuring the environmental sustainability of building materials, conserving resources in their production (particularly energy), involving foreign aid in the reconstruction process, and recycling demolition waste into building materials. It is determined that the future development of the construction industry must also address the issue of effectively insulating protective structures and bomb shelters with eco-friendly materials, necessitating further development of domestic building materials that meet the urgent demands of wartime. The article concludes with the prospect of utilizing hemp-lime building materials in the reconstruction process, as they fully align with the proposed development strategy